When disaster comes, and governments can’t help, people boil over. From Athens, we talk with foreign correspondent and climate security analyst Peter Schwartzstein. His new book is: “In The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence”. Then: why are scientists still talking about 1.5 degrees of warming as the goal, when last year was already hotter than that? We ask leading researcher Christoph Bertram for a more realistic take. Appalachia and Nepal are reeling from city-breaking floods, and Las Vegas is still sinfully hot in October. Sorry United Kingdom, you drew the never-ending-rain card in the climate casino. Who’s next?

I’m Alex Smith. Welcome to Radio Ecoshock.

Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (57 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

 

Climate and Violence Revisited

PETER SCHWARTZSTEIN

Can climate extremes drive unrest, riots or revolutions? A journalist with years in the world’s hot spots just published the new book “The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence”. Our guest is Peter Schwartzstein.

Peter is a widely published journalist and environmental consultant for a number of big-name UN and aid agencies. After 5 years reporting from Cairo and ten traveling through the Middle East, he is a Research Fellow for the non-partisan Center for Climate & Security, and a Global Fellow with the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change & Security Program.

Listen to or download this 27 minute interview with Peter Schwartzstein in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

 

The press release for this book says:

“As a climate security journalist, Peter Schwartzstein has been chased by kidnappers, beaten by police, and told, in no uncertain terms, that he was no longer welcome in certain countries. Yet these personal brushes with violence are just a hint of the conflict simmering in a warming world.”

When first presented with the idea of “climate and violence” I thought of crime rates going up during hot humid days and nights. This book is not about that, but social and state level breakdowns in countries seldom reports: the flooding coasts of Bangladesh, Egypt and Ethiopia hovering near war over a mega-dam on the Nile, bad government in Nepal, water stress in West Africa, drought in Jordan, hunger in Sudan, and then the question: are Western democracies immune?

In 2015 climate scientist Colin Kelley, a climate scientist now with the Center for Climate & Security, published a paper in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. They found climate change doubled or even tripled the likelihood of the severe drought that occurred in Syria from 2006 to 2010. That set the stage for the Syrian revolution of 2011, their “Arab Spring”. Peter Schwartzstein is one of the few with experience on the ground in Syria. His experience supports that climate connection, he says.

Two social scientists and an environmental statistician argued there was no clear link between climate change and the uprisings in Syria. Professor Jan Selby at the University of Sussex found, quoting him: “no sound evidence that global climate change was a factor in sparking the Syrian civil war.” None of them discount a climate link. I think the Syrian case was just early in climate change. As we get more extreme events, we have more test cases. Peter covers a number of other countries in his book.

IS AMERICA IMMUNE FROM CLIMATE VIOLENCE?

A principal lesson I have to learn over and over: while we talk about global averages and numbers, climate change is experienced locally. One region might get more floods, while another goes into extended drought. Maybe the case for climate and violence is more regional. I mean we don’t expect riots or attempts to overthrow government from disaster-torn Appalachia after the hurricane. They know help is coming.

But after a massive heatwave in May 2023, starving people in Sri Lanka knew no help was coming. That is when it boiled over into an uprising.

Sweltering heat wave hits Sri Lanka; climate change will likely bring more

 

The United Nations just warned (again) about increasing violence against women after disasters strike. Forced to move, sometimes into shelters or camps, women become targets. We are just sorting out the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, but with so few homes insured, there is bound to be loss and social stress.  Actually, if the grid goes down for a few weeks, and the food trucks stop during an immense heat wave – that might drag a lot of Americans off their couches into the street. Have we lost the community organizing skills and relationships needed to find solutions that avoid violence? Or is it just looting and lawlessness?

One of Peter’s big points in this new book: climate violence is here now, not a future concern. It is not hypothetical threat but a fixture for hundreds of millions of people. People in wealthier countries have trouble imagining how even smaller climate changes can tip already unstable governments and societies.

Find Peter at pschwartzstein.com.

For more from Peter and this book, here is a video: “Off the Shelf | On the Frontlines of Climate Violence with Author, Peter Schwartzstein”  September 24, 2024

 

 

ASHEVILLE THE “CLIMATE HAVEN”

In the show I play one of the most ironic clips ever. WLOS 13 Asheville’s ABC Affiliate ran that piece on why Asheville is safe from climate change in April 2022. At the end of September two years later, Asheville North Carolina was partially destroyed and cut off from the world by the tail end of Hurricane Helene. There are no “havens” from climate change. You may lose life expectancy inhaling wildfire smoke from fires thousands of miles away. Or you may be evacuated, suddenly and shocking, when it comes to you. That is why all of us, young and old, urgently need to become climate communicators and activists.

We will be right back with answers to the infernal question: why are scientists still talking as though limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C is still possible?

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SAYING “GOODBYE” TO 1.5 SAFETY LINE?

CHRISTOPH BERTRAM

Scientists say 1.5 degrees C. of warming beyond preindustrial is a red-line for preventing more climate chaos. But the last 12 months were 1.64 degrees C above preindustrial. With 1.5 in the rear-view mirror, why are scientists still talking about 1.5 as a real target? We are about to ask a lead researcher in the field that very question.

A new study confirms what we all feared: global warming of 1.6 C is the best we can hope for, and chances are not that good. Our guest is Lead Author is Christoph Bertram. He is Associate Research Professor at the Center for Global Sustainability at University of Maryland – and a guest researcher at PIK – the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, where he worked for over a dozen years. The paper title is: “Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints”.

We don’t find this process easy to talk about or understand. Many of us tune out when the subject of 1.5 even comes up. We are discouraged by dozens of years of failure by the COP process, where talk is cheap and emissions keep going up. This new paper takes that on, including limitations and feasibility in the real world.  Let’s talk about what is real.

Listen to or download this 24 minute interview with Christoph Bertram in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

 

According to the EU Copernicus service, the last 12 months were “1.64°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.” I ask Chistoph: Why are there so many studies on 1.5 degrees of warming when it may already be in the rear-view mirror?

Here is a short quote from the Abstract of the new paper in Nature Climate Change by Christoph and his 28 [!] co-authors :

“Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%.”

There is lots to unpack there, starting with: what is “low overshoot” and does that presume carbon capture and storage to get back down to 1.5?  Previously, Bertram was part of a team of authors saying 1.5 was possible with an “all-of-society” approach.  “All-of-Society Climate Pathway: Key Policy Levers for 1.5°C-Aligned Action” was published in November 2023. Now they say it is too late for that.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Authors of the new paper find the best case scenario is a 50% chance of a low overshoot. Those are not good odds. It’s like flipping a coin to see if we can maintain a livable safe planet. But in the real world and current institutions, the chance even for 1.6 degrees of warming could drop as low as 5 percent, they say.

Table 1 is a short summary of the factors this paper considered. They are grouped into:

geophysical
technological
insitutional
socio-cultural
economic

THE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO

From the paper by Christoph et al:

“If we assume that governance scores remain frozen at their 2020 levels, the ability to rapidly constrain emissions in most regions is sharply curtailed. In such a situation, and combined with technological constraints and the more pessimistic demand-side assumptions, more than 1,000 Gt CO2 would still be emitted before net zero can be reached. With these pessimistic assumptions on feasibility constraints … the maximum allowable policy ambition achieves peak temperature of 2 °C only with around 30–50% likelihood,”

ALEX: If governments continue as they are, we have only a 30 to 50% chance of a peak temperature of 2 degrees C. – which we know from extreme weather and other changes already, around the 1.5 degree C mark, 2 degrees C will be difficult for survival of our species and many other species. Bad odds.

CO2 IS NOT ENOUGH:

NO CLIMATE SALVATION WITHOUT SLASHING METHANE

Bertram was also Lead Author of this important paper on methane: “Ramping up methane emissions reductions in this decade: Implications of methane emissions for near- and medium-term warming” published November 29, 2023.

“The study finds that even if CO2 emissions were to steadily decrease and the planet reach net-zero around 2050, over half of the global temperature decrease by 2045 would have come from dedicated methane abatement.“

And the paper continues:

“A reduction of 120 million metric tons of methane corresponds to 3.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent over a 100-year timeframe. However, this understates methane’s actual near-term impact. If we use a more appropriate short-term metric of a 20-year global warming potential (GWP 20), methane reductions over the next twenty years make up nearly 50% of the needed emissions progress until 2030 (accounting for 10 of 21 gigatons carbon dioxide equivalent using GWP20). GWP20 reflects the impact of current methane emissions on climate behavior in the 2030s.”

Read more about it in this press release. The paper can be downloaded or viewed as a .pdf from a link in the press release.

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MORE CLIMATE NEWS TIDBITS

COAL STILL GROWING UNDER THE RADAR

If you are in Vancouver October 16 to18, drop by the 2024 Coal Association of Canada Conference. Their slogan is “Canada Has What the World Wants” – climate-killing coal I presume. They have charts and experts to show expanding populations around the world need more Canadian coal! You can even learn how Canada expanded two coal ports in Vancouver to ship coal from the open pits of Powder River Basin in Wyoming, on Warren Buffett’s coal trains. Seattle and other U.S. coast cities refused that dirty business.

Coal is not fading away, despite what we hear. Global coal prices and production are up. I’m sure the industry is happy to stay out of the limelight, as continuing disasters strike – due in large part to the coal industry over the last 200 years. Hey Vancouver, time to turn out on coal again!

CLIMATE ACTION MORE POPULAR THAN MEDIA SUGGESTS

A new study finds “about 40% of public supports rationing measures to fight climate change”. Sure, maybe in Sweden, home to Uppsala University. Actually, they say the new study involved “9,000 people in Brazil, India, Germany, South Africa and the United States”. This is surprising. It turns out millions and millions of people are deeply worried about climate change. They are willing to help, but only if the system is fair to everyone, not just the one percent.

PHOENIX RISES

Phoenix Arizona recorded their hottest day ever in September, a crushing 117 degrees Fahrenheit, in the shade, or 47 C. Pavements reach skin-burning temperatures. Emergency visits go up. Then the heat burst moved all the way North to the Great Lakes. Weird weird times.

NO MORE OILY TRAVEL ADS AT THE HAGUE

Some hopeful reporting from Charles Kennedy over at oilprice.com:

“the Hague has just become the first city in the world to ban oil ads and ads for large energy-consuming industries including air travel and cruise ships.

The Hague, whose city council on Friday adopted the proposal to ban these ads from January 1, 2025, is the Netherlands’ administrative center, where the Parliament, the Supreme Court, and several major international courts are based.

The city is the world’s first to adopt such a ban, after UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres earlier this year called on governments to ban these ads.”

OVERSHOOTING BOUNDARIES

Eric Roston of Bloomberg cites The Lancet Planetary Health report, September 2024 with this news that never made the news: “Human activity is imperiling eight of the planet’s critical life-support systems and seven of them have already passed into a danger zone, according to a massive review of Earth science conducted jointly by more than 60 researchers and published Wednesday in The Lancet Planetary Health.’” Nothing to worry about there.

AI PODCASTS

Google AI says it can turn your notes into a “lively” podcast complete with two fake hosts. I guess I can retire now.

SURPRISE! MORE EXTREME WEATHER

“Extreme weather to strengthen rapidly over next two decades, research suggests” That’s from the University of Reading, September 9. They continue:

“Nearly three quarters of the global population can expect strong and rapid changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall in the next 20 years unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut dramatically, according to a new study.

Led by scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research and supported by the University of Reading, the research shows that 20% of the population could face extreme weather risks if emissions are cut enough to reach the aims of the Paris Agreement, compared to 70% if limited action is taken.”

HUMAN-MADE METHANE

Regular listeners follow the worrying path of methane build-up in the atmosphere. Methane already causes about a third of warming already doing so much damage. New work from previous Ecoshock guest Rob Jackson is titled “Human activities now fuel two-thirds of global methane emissions”. We should talk to Rob again.

SOIL HEAT WAVES

And finally, did you know the soil also experiences heat waves? A new paper by Chinese scholars is called “Surging compound drought–heatwaves underrated in global soils”. That only matters if you need food.

COMING UP

I may have to take a week off, due to a family health emergency. I’m not sure yet. Right now I am lining up guests to take on Hurricane Milton, the surprising giant of the Gulf. This hopes to be a season of new shows marching off to the climate front, fighting without hope of victory, because we must.

I’m Alex Smith. Thank you for sticking with these difficult and unpleasant questions about our common future. I appreciate you listening – and caring about our world.

YOU MAY HAVE A FREE AI IMAGE GENERATOR ALREADY ON YOUR COMPUTER

Below are a couple more AI images of the machine gobbling up Nature and spitting out plastic crap. These were generated with Dall_E_3 AI – because some use is free, through Microsoft CoPilot, now on all Windows 11 computers.

Here is how. Look at the very bottom right hand side of your screen (in Windows) to click on a blue and orange box. Up comes CoPilot. In the prompt window type “Create an image of [your image description]. Four images come up. Click on any one of them and you get a bigger version on the screen, with the ability to download it clearly marked. Save the best one, or all four as you like.

Note the AI suggests several modifications to your prompt, which are often useful. If you click on a modification, it creates four new images, based on your original theme, but possibly better.

Note that this image generator is crippled to be politically correct. For example, if I want to show people dead on the street during a heat wave, CoPilot refuses. It can show people “sleeping” on the street. But it will not create an ugly face with warts, any violence, and no… you get the idea. But it can show cities flooding and you can ask for a “dystopian” view, etc. You will probably see more of these images as the theme shot for Radio Ecoshock shows.