The Arctic burns as never before. Scientist Jennifer Balch introduces new climate “fast fires”. Reports from the north fire-front: a panel on Arctic wildfires at the Arctic Circle Assembly in October. Changes in the Arctic change the world, but it is a lawless land. Joint-action in the Arctic is in a coma, with military in the wings. In fire and heat, nature’s violence is taking over, all around the Polar sea. Look North.
I’m Alex Smith. Welcome to Radio Ecoshock.
Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (57 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada burned an estimated 18.4 million hectares of land, which is over seven times the annual average of 2.5 million hectares. This total area burned was larger than the entire state of North Dakota. About 70% of the population of Canada’s Northwest Territories was evacuated, including residents of the territorial capital, Yellowknife. It was the horror year for fire in the Canadian north. Future fires will be measured against this record-smashing blackening of vast lands, with clouds of carbon released. Experts are still gasping and grasping what it means.
In June 2024, intense wildfires above the Arctic Circle in Russia’s Far North, particularly in the Sakha Republic, released about 6.8 megatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, third highest on record.
Research published in September 2024 demonstrated that the rise in Siberian wildfires is related to drought, drying soils, and decreased rainfall caused by Arctic warming. The study identified a potential feedback loop where wildfires suppress precipitation, further drying soils and increasing fire likelihood.
A study published in Nature Communications revealed that Arctic wildfires are causing unprecedented permafrost thawing and soil drying, leading to a destructive cycle of more intense fires. Researchers estimate burned acreage throughout arctic areas will more than double as permafrost thaws.
Arctic wildfires ‘rapidly’ burning permafrost, causing more intense wildfires
With the Arctic warming four times faster than the rest of the world, we need dialog and cooperation among the nations who claim those Arctic lands and waters. The flimsy institutions trying to make that happen are dying or dead. You will hear voices from half the Arctic in this program, but not Russia. More on that to follow. What is it like to live in the burning Arctic now? We investigate two more feedback loops forcing still more warming.
First, introducing a new class of fires that hurts us most.
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FAST FIRES!
GUEST JENNIFER BALCH
“The modern era of megafires is often defined based on wildfire size, but it should be defined based on how fast fires grow and their consequent societal impacts.”
– Jennifer Balch
The news is still full of wildfires. Vast areas burn releasing more warming carbon into the atmosphere. Health-wrecking smoke travels thousands of miles away. But if you live in the fire zone, there is a new class of fires – beasts that cannot be stopped. Where is the “fire zone” in new climate times? Apparently it includes New Jersey and New York City in November.
A new study uncovers a type of fire that burns thousands of homes and kills more people. Jennifer Balch is Associate Professor of Geography and Director of ESILL at the University of Colorado, Boulder. Her latest paper is “The fastest-growing and most destructive fires in the US (2001 to 2020)”.
Listen to or download this 18 minute interview with Jennifer Balch in CD Quality or Lo-Fi
Pulling together data on 60,000 wildfires in the lower 48 States (from both satellites and ground records) – this team finds less that 3% of those fires cause about 89% of the damage, including buildings burned and lost lived. These are “fast fires”. They are defined as growing 1,620 hectares, or about 4,000 acres increase in a day.
PBS Terra made a decent documentary about this new science. In it, host Maiya May says “as the wind drops in elevation atmospheric pressure increases which dries and warms the air. Temperatures can increase by as much as five and a half degrees Fahrenheit for every 1,000 feet of lost elevation. This also dries vegetation...”
One example is the Marshall Fire in Colorado, December 30, 2021 destroyed a thousand homes in six hours, the worst in state history. It had downslope winds. Another fast fire burned down the town of Lahaina on Maui’s northwest coast in 2003. The 2018 Camp Fire in California burned over 21,000 hectares the day it started, killing 85 people and destroying more than 16,000 homes.
This documentary suggests these fires may be “unstoppable”. Fire-fighters can only help people evacuate – but mostly the fire-fighters have to withdraw, especially in wind-powered conflagrations. One lead fire-fighter described an out-of-control blaze as a wind storm with a fire inside it. Here is a description from this new paper by Balch et al:
“We know that the primary mechanism for home ignition is fire brands propelled ahead of the flaming front that land on flammable materials attached to, on,or inside the structure and ultimately consume it. Firefighters can extinguish these building ignitions during slower fires or when structure ignition is mitigated, but during fast-moving events, they are often overwhelmed by the higher number of homes catching fire simultaneously and the need to focus on life safety and evacuations, such as during the 2018 Camp Fire.”
The Hellish fire that burned through the town of Jasper Alberta last summer was driven by heavy winds. The Park and whole tourist town were evacuated within hours of it starting.
The public thinks “forest fires” but this study found more homes are lost in grassland fires.
This team of scientists found incredible increases in fast fire behavior, like 250% and even almost a 400% increase just since 2001. They find “… the frequency of fast-growing fires is predicted to increase by ~50 to 200% with projected warming.” A 2022 article in Science with Jennifer as co-author found U.S. fires are becoming larger, more frequent and more widespread in the United States, since the year 2000.
The mean or average fire growth rate across the continental U.S. doesn’t help us much. This new study found a huge variety of FGR (Fire Growth Rates) from 21 hectares a day all the way up to 214,200 ha/day. That is why the most damaging fires (from a human perspective) need to be categorized and studied on their own.
They found more than one third of the area burned across the U.S. happened in a single day, the day of maximum fire growth. That number went up to more than 70% for some times of landscapes, like shrub lands in the Great Plains.
MANY FIRES AT ONCE
“Synchronicity” is also increasing. That means fire-fighting resources may get stretched thin because several very large fires may be burning at the same time. A 2020 study led by John Abatzoglou found: “By 2051–2080, the number of days with synchronous fire danger is projected to double. There is an on-going investigation looking at the number of simultaneous fires globally.
These increases in fires, especially “fast fires” is mostly due to climate change, like hot days drying out the soil and long-lasting drought. Scientists also found more lightening is likely as the planet supercharges storms. But there are many other factors as you know. More people are building in the woods, and as population expands, there are more human-caused fires. Some are arson, but most are unintentional like burning waste or vehicle fires. Logging and even fire suppression can increase wildfire risk.
The study authors recognize that very large fires can harm people’s health up to thousands of miles away, they release the most carbon to the atmosphere adding to warming, and damage ecosystems (including wildlife and plants).
ALEX: FAST FIRE TIPS
I live in a fire zone. We don’t have summers now, we have fire season. We just unpacked our bug-out bags a few days ago, in November. Somehow we have to teach millions of people to believe warnings, and react more quickly than in their parents days. Here are a few of my tips for anyone in a fire zone, now that we live in the age of fast fires:
Bug out bags for all. Emergency plans, personal and community-wide. Expect to have less than 15 minutes to get out. Don’t wait for the evacuation order. If smoke is heavy or any other signs of fire imminent, get out. Evacuation orders take bureaucracy and time. You may not have that time. Take personal initiative, especially if you live in known fast-fire zones (which includes most of the West and especially California).
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BAD FIRE NEWS FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
Towering flames force even officials and bureaucrats to speak truth. Voices from the North want you to know. What is it like to live in the fastest heating place in the world? Is that where the future of the world will be written? In this program we listen it to a panel with high-level speakers on what this barrage of wildfires means for people in the Arctic, but also a looming climate disaster if the Boreal forest continues to burn.
Here are the speakers:
Lisa Murkowski, United States Senator (she is an Honorary Board Member of the Arctic Circle).
Yvonne Jones, Parliamentary Secretary to the Canadian Minister of Northern Affairs and to the Minister of National Defense, Canadian Parliament
Edward Alexander, Co-Chair, Gwich’in Council International; Co-Lead, Norwegian Chairship Wildland Fires Initiative
Maria Varteressian, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway
Usually, we expect bland platitudes from officials. None of that here. I was surprised when American Senator Lisa Murkowski spoke for everyone in the fire-ing line, from the far north to California.
We hear, for the first time for many of us, the real news from the Canadian Arctic. Edward Alexander gives us the experience of the original population of the Arctic, still there and still strong. Then a State Secretary of the giant petro-state Norway admits burning fossil fuels is the main driver behind the burning of the north. This is, as you expect on Radio Ecoshock, news you need to know.
The panel discussion comes courtesy of the non-profit Arctic Circle. Don’t confuse that with the politicians representing eight countries in the Arctic Council, which is currently non-functional because of geopolitical disputes. More on that breakdown in the Arctic later.
The NGO Arctic Circle panel strongly communicate climate-inflicted damage and pain in the Arctic, as wildfires go beyond anything seen before. The fires destroy boreal forest protects the permafrost. These distant fires must become a global priority. Otherwise carbon many times greater than all human emissions could be released to the atmosphere now, and for centuries to come.
Thank you to Arctic Circle for this panel recorded in Reykjavík, Iceland at the Arctic Circle Assembly October 17th to 19th, 2024. The panel is available on YouTube, along with at least a dozen other presentations. Go to arcticcircle.org.
TWO THREATS OF INTEREST TO ALL
There are two relatively new threats to all raised in this panel, First, Lisa Murkowski points to an important underestimation about the impact of increasing wildfires in the Arctic. When Boreal forests burn down, that exposes frozen ground – the permafrost – directly to the sun’s energy. This includes long summer days of non-stop heating.
In Nature, the permafrost melts more slowly when it is shaded. Lisa cites Black Spruce forests as good protectors of permafrost. When they burn, the next vegetation growing does not offer the same shade. Black Spruce may take more than a decade to regain dominance. Meanwhile, one of the largest carbon lockers in the world is exposed to more thawing. As micro-organisms get to work, they release methane if under a pond, or carbon dioxide in open air. This is already happening but will speed up with even more wildfires. Current models do not contain this change in permafrost – or the atmosphere – as massive fires burn land all around the Arctic Ocean.
YEDOMA
Second: Edward Alexander twice raises another special form of frozen carbon: “Yedoma”. This is a new word for many listeners. In Siberia, Alaska and Canada huge slabs of pre-historic ice form part of the landscape. They are mostly water but as Alexander tells us, these in-ground ice fields contain more carbon than humans produce.
The Yedoma almost looks like dark rock in places it is exposed, along Arctic river beds and ocean coastal cliffs. But this geology can change fairly quickly, because it can thaw. That leaves collapsing earth and buildings, and soggy bogs pockmarked with small lakes. Earth has more than one million square kilometers of Yedoma in the Arctic.
Yedoma formations need protection, if that is possible. They certainly need to be monitored. For example, if Yedoma starts releasing more greenhouse gases, then humans need to emit even less. Otherwise a positive feedback kicks in, where more Yedoma thaw leads to warming leads to more Yedoma thaw.
Really the only answer is to drastically slash greenhouse gas emissions starting now. That protects the Arctic from even more wildfires, and thawing carbon from permafrost and Yedomas.
NORWEGIAN IRONY
It is a bit surprising (or not) to hear the State Secretary, of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs say we know what causes all this. It is humans burning fossil fuels and that needs to be reduced. The irony is the Norwegian Government owns and runs one of the larger fossil fuel operations in the world. It is the 13th largest oil producer in the world, and 7th largest gas producer.
Norwegians as a whole are raking in hundreds of billions of dollars more now that Russian sanctions have raised energy prices in Europe, Norway’s major market. Norway does acknowledge burning fossil fuels causes global warming. They promise to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 and low-emission society by 2050.
But this is disingenuous. They could transition entirely with their 1.5 trillion dollar national “Oil Fund” from fossil fuel sales. Like Canada, Norway promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from their production platforms and facilities. That’s good. But they don’t count emissions when their products are sold and burned in other parts of the world. They don’t talk about cutting exports. Really, to save a liveable climate, both countries need to announce their five-year wind down plan to stop selling fossil fuels. There is no other magic answer. Physical systems don’t care about promises, ideas, or excuses.
So, like everyone else, the Norwegian Government knows its products are killing millions of people world-wide, with much more damage, death, and displacement to come. But they are making way too much money to actually stop.
Now with the Ukraine war energy crisis, the Government of Norway can claim high ground: they are keeping Europe’s economy going and keeping people from freezing in their gas-dependent homes. They also bring them extreme flash floods to wash those homes away. Canada and the United States do the same. Even Saudi Arabia knows climate change is real and not good for them, not good at all in coming decades – and yet they profit and profit from more oil production. They too claim to be supporting people everywhere who “need” it. Fossil fuel production is portrayed as a service to a needy and grateful public.
I guess the contradiction in the Norwegian representative at the Arctic Circle should be no surprise. Norway currently holds the Chairmanship of the Arctic Circle and keeps it until Denmark takes over in 2025. Finally the Circle will be run by a wind producer, instead of fossil fuel producers.
All these question come from the humble Arctic Circle, an international organization with a Secretariat based in Reykjavík, Iceland. Founded in 2013 by Iceland President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson. Countries from any part of the world can become involved in this Arctic discussion. In the latest Arctic Circle Assembly October 2024, speakers came from Japan, Singapore, Italy, the Faroe Islands, India. There were also several military or defense speakers. The Special Envoy for Climate Change from the Government of the People’s Republic of China also spoke. I found no recorded speeches by anyone from Russia or representatives of Scandinavian Indigenous people, such as the Lapps.
Why not Russia? They apparently withdrew after the invasion of Ukraine. At the time of the invasion, Russia was Chair of the Arctic Council. But they were ostracized. Somehow the Norwegians regain the Chair position and conferences go on without Russia. But scientific research into Arctic matters seems locked up in a geopolitical deep freeze.
ARCTIC COUNCIL IN A COMA
It gets worse. Of course it gets worse. Further up the political food chain, the only semblance of pan-Arctic governance has fallen into a coma. Unlike the wide-open Arctic Circle who produced our panel, the Arctic Council is a different beast. The Arctic Council has only eight countries with a speaking role: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States. This is where governments came to make deals and discuss common problems.
As the Arctic heated four times global average, and sea ice continued it’s retreat, the previous Trump Administration from 2017 worked to neutralize the Council. They wanted the words “climate change” and the like removed from joint documents. The United States shut down any climate or energy discussions. Trump floated the idea of buying Greenland. Expect more of the same from 2025 onward.
On the other side of the polar sea, Russia has been shut out of the Arctic Council. Fifty three percent – more than half – of the Arctic coastline is claimed by Russia and that country has more Arctic land, settlement, and military bases than all others. Without Russia, there is no way forward for agreements to protect permafrost, the ice-world, and all the fragile creatures of the far north.
Meanwhile China claims it is a “near-polar” state with serious claims to the Arctic. At least twice, Chinese interests attempted to buy Arctic ports for dual civilian military use. Chinese scientists have an Arctic study base and produce a lot of new research about the Poles, from undersea geology to climate change. China is jockeying for a position in Arctic decisions.
Norway, Iceland and Denmark mean well and are trying to keep the Arctic Circle and the Arctic Council alive. But without Russia, and America acting to stall everything, for now the Arctic Council is dead.
MILITARY LIFE IN THE ARCTIC
In it’s place comes a militarized competition for whatever oil, gas, or minerals lie beneath the untapped Arctic Ocean. You can watch YouTube videos of Russia’s ambitious bases, ports, and strategies for military control of the far north. Russia also has a fleet of the world’s only atomic-powered ice breakers. The Arctic is home to Russia’s primary nuclear ballistic missile submarine force.
The United States has the joint Air Force and Army base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage Alaska. There is Fort Wainwright and Fort Greely near Fairbanks, and Eielson Air Force Base near the North Pole. American nuclear submarines are known to travel under the ice. The previous Trump Administration considered the Arctic a place of strategic struggle rather than a cooperation zone.
All this is to say: there is a “wild North” as lawless as the legendary Wild West of America. The fires are also wild. According to the EU Copernicus project, if our emissions hit a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370) – terrifying fire years like 2023 in Canada will happen 6 to 10 times more frequently by end of century. Fire carbon emissions were up 16% in 2023.
We don’t even know how much burned for sure. There just isn’t enough globally sifted data on wildfires. Russia does not report reliable figures. Canada may not know for sure. We know there were giant wildfires in the Canadian Arctic Circle in August 2024. All-time record-high temperatures were recorded in August, with parts of the Arctic Circle reaching 36°C (97°F). In some areas of the Northwest Territories, fires burned over 100,000 hectares of land per day. I was unable to find figures for all wildfires in the Arctic Circle in 2023 and ’24. We do not know how big this problem is – or how fast it is getting worse!
JUST PART OF INSTITUTIONAL BREAKDOWN
For decades, all the expert panels and reports assumed the barriers to solving climate change would be commercial or technological, sort of social… None of them thought institutions would fail, leaving no one at the helm. The failure of Arctic institutions of cooperation are just part of gross institutional breakdown as the climate crisis deepens.
Likewise, the Convention of the Parties (COP) is floundering. For a second year it is being run by oil and gas producers, with more oil-related lobbyists than non-profit groups, no chance for civil protests or outside voices, all in very authoritative states. This is while global emissions hit new absolute records and wild profits drive oil multinationals to ditch green promises and drill, drill, drill. Enter Donald Trump the President of Drill, Drill, Drill Incorporated. Could there be more institutional breakdown in America’s near-term future?
In the last 15 years since the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, climate science, funded by large institutions, ASSUMED continued ability of humans to steer away from knowable disasters. Report after report laid out possible pathways all requiring long-term planning, governments with good intent, corporate cooperation, and orderly change in human affairs. That did not happen. Instead, these long-term plans face collapse amid institutional failure. Some of us warned against exactly that possibility – and were labeled “alarmists”, “doomers”, “extremists”, and worse.
As far as I know, there is no plan forward after widespread institutional failure. Without international cooperation and legitimate governments supported by their population – there is no way to stop global climate change. The United Nations failed decades ago. There is currently no institution or meaningful organization to lead global action for a safe environment.
Perhaps a miracle will happen. All 200 countries in the world, or at least the most polluting ones, come to a realization in the next few years, they are in danger and must act. And they do. All independently, at the same time. Would you count on that? Do you believe in miracles?
MAYBE IS ALL WE’VE GOT
There are many tiny maybes. A gang of dictators might try to save their vast holdings from further costs and shut down fossil fuels. War might wreck the Goliath of fossil fuel trade. Artificial intelligence might take over and save it’s machines from out heating. There’s always nuclear winter and science fiction. All those tiny maybe’s.
No one knows the future. That is what we have: a world of trouble and some flimsy maybes. The next plot twist awaits us. Hopefully it is not the end of the series.
I’m Alex with new facts and mad rambles. Thank you for listening, and caring.
P.S. donations from blog readers like you funds this show – and everything given away free to people all over the world. This is all I do. Please help me keep going if you can.