Life in a new hot atmosphere. Alex with the greenhouse gas breakdown and outlook. Can machines claw them back? MIT carbon capture expert Dr. Howard Herzog. From Australia, science led by Dr. Milton Speer confirms: we experience new seasons in a changed world.
Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (57 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)
“You don’t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”
– Bob Dylan “Subterranean Homesick Blues”
Welcome traveler from 2024. You just came from the hottest year humans every lived. For 16 consecutive months – from June 2023 to September 2024 – the global mean temperature exceeded anything recorded before, and often by a wide margin, according to the World Meteorological Organization. You don’t need to be a weatherman to know what is coming. You don’t need AI. We have the science.
This planet will get hotter and hotter. Ice is leaving the planet, from the poles, tall mountains and the sea. The rising darker ocean embraces more solar energy. An era of disasters arrives and stays until some thousands of years later a new order is established. Earth returns to the hothouse state that dominates time on this planet.
Eventually, there would be no ice on such a world. If you have trouble imagining this, you are not alone. Artificial intelligence cannot imagine it either. After some attempts, it became apparent that neither Google Gemini or Microsoft CoPilot can create an image of Earth without ice. They just can’t. In the resulting images, Greenland is always white, with white ice at the North Pole, no matter how you plead and prompt. This is something a human illustrator could draw or paint, but a computer (so far) cannot. AI has not been trained on the future.
Here in human micro-time, another year begins. For the next storms, floods, and fires, only a few numbers matter: greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The players matter, the amounts are critical, but a new devil appears: the rate of change. From biological systems to ocean currents, new science finds again and again: the rate of change is as important as the amount.
2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record, with global temperatures rising 1.54 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels according to the World Meteorological Organization. But the WMO calls this warming level “temporary”, likely due to the previous El Nino.
This past year is thought to be .1 deg C hotter than the previous hottest year 2023. If that is confirmed, warming at .1 degree C per year would heat Earth by 2.5 degrees C over pre-industrial by 2035. At that rate we might reach civilization-ending heat of 3 degrees C. by 2040, meaning global collapse in just 15 years. Humans must attack the rate of warming for organized society to survive.
Antarctic sea ice is at its second lowest on record. 2023 was lowest. Arctic sea ice is also near record low. This means the reflective solar shield of ice around the Poles is substantially smaller. The darker ocean is absorbing more energy.
You know from the news, if not from your own life, that extreme weather events are getting worse. The hurricane typhoons, wildfires, freak flash floods, and creeping drought are too hard to miss. Oceans are record hot, especially in the North Atlantic. We covered a lot of that on this program. Check out our free archive programs with hundreds of great scientists!
WHERE DO WE STAND WITH GREENHOUSE GASES NOW?
Here we go – straight to the drivers: greenhouse gases. The best known is carbon dioxide. Around two thirds of warming comes from CO2, measured as parts per million in the atmosphere. The carbon dioxide level at Mauna Loa Observatory is around 425 parts per million as of December 25, 2024. CO2 concentrations have increased 11.4 % in just 20 years according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Let’s pay attention to that critical growth rate. According to NOAA, CO2 levels in November 2023 were 420 ppm and 423 ppm in November 2024. More exactly, the difference is 3.39 parts per million higher in one year. The growth rate in 1975 was 1.23 ppm – almost a third less. In the year 2000, CO2 increase was still only 1.25 ppm. That was a lower year when the increase was bouncing between 1.5 and 2.3 until 2010. Growth rate was 2.79 in 2023, according to NOAA. Now it is 3.3 ppm.
MIGHTY METHANE
The second major warming gas is methane, a single carbon atom surrounded by four atoms of hydrogen. In 2024, methane levels in the atmosphere are rising at a faster rate than any other major greenhouse gas.
According to NOAA, in August 2023, methane averaged 1917 parts per billion in the atmosphere. By August 2024 is was 1926 ppb, an increase of 9 parts per billion in one year.
The methane growth rate per year varies widely over time. For example, it was 14 ppb in 1991. That was because of methane released in the huge Pinatubo volcanic eruption in the Philippines. Then methane levels decreased up to 7 parts per billion by 1993. From the year 2000 to 2006, methane growth was muted, and some experts stopped worrying about it.
Then around 2007 this highly potent greenhouse gas began climbing again, the rate increasing from 5 to 7 ppb per year. By 2014 methane increase hit double digits of ten to 12 ppb, and then a 15 ppb in 2020, 17 in 2021, but slumping slightly in 2023. Remember, we are not talking directly about the amount of warming methane in the atmosphere, but the key RATE of the increase.
It is a bit like compound interest. When greenhouse gas emissions grow, each increase already includes the increased amounts from previous years. In just one example, if methane goes up 7 ppb in one year, say from 100 to 107, then 107 becomes the new standard, so to speak. If methane increases another 10 ppb this year, obviously the new total is not 110 ppb, but 117. This increase over previous increases can get radical.
In 2023, the average concentration of methane in the atmosphere was 1,922.6 parts per billion (ppb). This was a 10.9 ppb increase from 2022, which was the fifth highest increase since 2007.
NITROUS OXIDE
This is where too much climate reporting stops: carbon dioxide and methane. There are far more greenhouse gases rising into the air from human activities. We can’t lose sight of this in a focus on carbon dioxide. Although estimates differ slightly, Nitrous oxide (N2O) is responsible for up to 10% of net global warming since the industrial revolution. It’s also the top ozone-depleting substance still being released into the atmosphere. Sixty five percent of total nitrogen oxide emissions come from human activities. Nitrous oxide has a global warming potential around 280 times greater than CO2, and once it’s up there, N2O stays in the atmosphere for over 100 years.
Nitrous oxide emissions have accelerated greatly in the last 40 years. From 1980 to 2020, emissions increased by 40%. We didn’t see it coming. This dramatic increase in nitrous oxide in the atmosphere is greater than all climate model predictions. NOAA says: “the annual increases measured for N2O during 2020, 2021 and 2022 are among the fastest recorded since measurements began.”
Nitrous oxide wafts into the atmosphere from the use of fertilizers made from natural gas. Nitrous oxide is also a known bi-product of burning all fossil fuels – oil, gas, and coal. Poor wastewater management adds more NO2 to the air.
Other rare but extremely potent human-made gases like Hexafluoroethane and Sulfur hexafluoride are also rising at increasing rates. These super greenhouse gases come mainly from petrochemical processes and chemical manufacturing. They could be controlled pretty easily by regulations and international agreements, but so far are not.
ANOTHER GROWING GREENHOUSE GAS: WATER VAPOR
According to climate.gov: “The Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (or AGGI) is a measure that tracks the global warming influence of all human-emitted greenhouse gases, which was 51 percent higher in 2023 than it was in 1990.”
But the government figures and science reports simply leave out the single largest gas retaining heat on this planet: water vapor. We know why this was done in the past, but isn’t it time to re-evaluate?
We know that for every degree of warming, the atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapor, which is about 2 to 3 times more potent in warming than carbon dioxide. The Annual Greenhouse Gas Index does not include it. That was because water vapor comes and goes quickly, often within weeks, and actual amounts in the atmosphere vary over time. Still, with a proven hotter atmosphere, we can now consider the increase in water vapor as permanent. It should be added to carbon totals to get the real atmosphere warming gas total, and included in rates of increase. We are not getting the full picture, despite increasing obvious climate impacts. Humans always give themselves a loophole, a special exception for us from the laws of physics and living things.
WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN?
So what do all these numbers mean? The rate of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are increasing at alarming rates, higher than official predictions. We are still lying to ourselves about how fast this is getting worse, just as a new climate denial and back-pedaling takes over in many countries and corporate board rooms. Humans are abandoning some of their weakest attempts to protect ourselves and coming generations from a catastrophic climate shift.
Slightly positive: solar installations are increasing around the world, and especially in the developing world. Some economies may truly leap-frog past dependency on fossil fuels. Electric vehicles are starting to dominate new vehicle sales in some parts of the world. However, all the added renewable energy is soaking up some of the increase in energy demand, as more of the world enters a digital-industrial state. We are producing more fossil fuels than ever.
Remember all the talk about coal being on the way out? According to a new report, published December 2024 from the International Energy Agency, coal burning has reached a new record peak and is expected to remain there for years. China alone burns thirty percent more coal than the rest of the world combined. This is very disturbing news. It’s black.
AI AT EXACTLY THE WRONG TIME
Worse, just as the world needs to slash energy demand – with heat pumps, efficiency, less consumption, etc. – along comes a new technology that eats fossil fuels. Artificial intelligence is sweeping the world. I produce new images for each Radio Ecoshock show with AI. According to brand new research, each attempt at an image uses as much energy as charging a cell phone. Every image.
As you know, the biggest AI producers and servers are rushing to nail down major energy sources. Microsoft plans to reopen the fatally-flawed Three Mile Island reactors to power their AI. A coal utility in Nebraska was going to close, but now stays open for AI including Google.
Even if AI decides on renewable sources – that sucks up limited renewables from other human needs like heating, cooling, and lights. Is the arrival of energy-sucking AI at the very time of critical need for reductions just bad luck in human affairs? Or is it a natural outcropping of a fossil society with no regard for other living things and the future? Either way, the verdict is: the critical next ten years to slash emissions before irreversible tipping points looks doomed at the outset.
2024 may be the hottest year you ever lived, and the coolest year you will ever experience. With possible exceptions, every year from here on out may be the hottest and coolest for all of us, and all life – until something in human production breaks, collapses, or a miracle revolution comes.
There were very dark times in the last century and they ended. Human existence has been temporary ever since, as nuclear mutual annihilation hovers over us. But wars and bombs are still under human control. We can start them, and we can end them. Climate change we can only start. Once the great warming starts, nature takes over with giant feedbacks like thawing permafrost and vanishing glaciers. Warming becomes it’s own thousand-year-Reich with humans helpless to stop it.
Of course we have illusions of saving ourselves with machines. We investigate that next.
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DOES DIRECT AIR CAPTURE HAVE A FUTURE?
HOWARD HERZOG
The great hope is called Direct Air Capture. International agencies already count DAC as its called, among solutions after overshooting the 1.5 degree C safety mark. Two carbon capture plants are starting operations in Iceland. But how real is it?
If anybody knows, it is Howard J. Herzog. He is a Senior Research Engineer in the MIT Energy Initiative. Herzog is an expert in the field with many papers published about DAC. He was a Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (released September, 2005),
Now with three other Senior and Principal Research Scientists at MIT, Herzog published a startling conclusion in a Commentary titled “Getting real about capturing carbon from the air.” Find a detailed explanation in this MIT Press Release, about this study here.
Listen to or download this 22 minute interview with Howard Herzog in CD Quality or Lo-Fi
Howard is also a co-author of another helpful study: “Deploying direct air capture at scale: How close to reality?”
TERMS TO LEARN:
bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
direct air capture (DAC)
DAC with carbon storage (DACCS)
direct air capture carbon utilization (to make fuels) (DACCU)
THE LARGEST DAC PLANTS
Currently, the largest DAC plant (Orca: Located in Hellisheidi, Iceland) removes 4,000 metric tons (tonnes) of CO2 per year and the price for a carbon removal credit is $1,500/tCO2.
Since the paper was written, it appears the largest DAC plant is now the Mammoth plant in Iceland (above), operated by Climeworks. It has a capacity to capture up to 36,000 metric tons of CO2 annually. But Mammoth is no where near its capacity, and not even fully built yet. We have no idea how successful it will be, or whether it every achieves its nameplate capacity for long periods.
PUTTING THAT IN PERSPECTIVE – IT WOULD TAKE A MILLION MAMMOTH PLANTS…
In 2023, the world emitted over 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2), with nearly 37 billion tons coming from fossil fuels. This was a 1.1% increase from 2022 and a 1.5% increase from pre-pandemic levels.
So at full capacity, this one DAC station in Iceland would remove about 0.00000097297 of the world’s fossil fuel emissions. That is less than one millionth part of 2023 fossil fuel emissions, much less other sources. It would take a million plants the size of Mammoth to keep up with our current fossil fuel emissions, which appear to be still growing.
HUGE, MILE-LONG BUILDINGS OF STEEL AND CONCRETE…
For example, a design proposed by Carbon Engineering to capture just one million tonnes of CO2 per year (MtCO2/year) would require the air contactor cross-sectional area to be 46,000 square meters, equivalent to a structure about 3 stories high and 3 miles long.
These structures must also be hardened to the elements, requiring significant amounts of steel, concrete, and other building materials, resulting in high costs. Properly accounting for the massive amount of capital, land, and costs involved means the feasibility of deploying DAC at the gigatonne scale is highly uncertain.
ENERGY REQUIREMENT
The paper by Herzog et al says:
“All-electric DAC deployed at large scale – say 10 Gt CO2 removal annually – would require 12,000 TWh of electricity, which is more than 40% of total global electricity generation today. That electricity would need to be carbon-free – an all-electric DAC process using coal-based electricity would generate 1.2 tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of CO2 captured, which would result in net emissions increasing, defeating the whole purpose of DAC.
Given electricity consumption is expected to grow due to increasing overall electrification of the world economy… Using clean electricity for DAC instead of emission reductions raises concerns about the best uses of clean electricity.”
PICTURING THE PROCESS
Image in long halls with open walls. They are located where steady to strong winds are common, even legendary. Conveniently a water-fall nearby has been converted into a large electricity plant. Deep canyons below, or a nearby old gas fracking field, must hold the captured carbon, sealed away from the atmosphere. That is the ideal setting.
The air flows over a chemical mix that absorbs carbon from the air. That is the a “sorbent”. Different formulas for the sorbent determine whether they need low heat (100 degrees C.) or high heat (900 degrees C) to operate. Parts of the plant need to close down operations when regenerating the sorbent. Is this considered when announcing the nameplate capacity – to the level promoted to the public?
KEY CONCLUSION
Based on decades of research in this field, Herzog and colleagues conclude:
“…given the high stakes of climate change, it is foolhardy to rely on DAC to be the hero that comes to our rescue.”
But Herzog thinks Direct Air Capture will be one of many tools we need to bring carbon levels down. Others worry public expectations for DAC are simply misleading, during a dangerous time. For example Dr. Jonathan Folely posted on BlueSky…
“Dec 12, 2024 Industrial carbon capture technology is getting lots of hype and investment, but sadly it just doesn’t work. And it distracts us from what does.
It reminds me of cryptocurrency. Lots of hype and money flowing, but no meaningful use case.”
For a more positive perspective (or maybe hype) see this recent article in the New York Times “The New Climate Gold Rush: Scrubbing Carbon From the Sky” (subscription required).
Direct Air Capture may become another bubble of investment and building. Fossil fuel burners see it as a passport to keep on making billions of dollars. Anyone with hope may hope for it. But even the long-time experts know DAC IS NOT “the hero that comes to our rescue.” Treat what you hear with caution and keep attention on what matters: ending the mad burst of greenhouse gases into the sky.
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NEW SEASONS IN A WARMING CLIMATE
MILTON SPEER
In reality, there is no global temperature or sea level rise. Climate impacts are experienced where you are, and differently everywhere. These days, climate shows up as local, fast, extreme events outside our best models. New work from Australia suggests we need to rethink climate and what seasons mean – when extremes become the norm.
Lead author of the new paper, Dr. Milton Speer is a Visiting Fellow at the University of Technology Sydney. His co-author is Professor Lance Leslie, also at UTS. Their paper is “Machine learning suggests climate and seasonal definitions should change under global warming.”
Listen to or download this 19 minute interview with Milton Speer in CD Quality
For me, this paper confirms what most of us suspect: we have changed the seasons known to humans through time. In our minds, we have certain months assigned to Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter. Now it seems Summer is expanding while Winter shrinks. Spring comes earlier, Fall lingers longer.
This study looks intensively at one region in Australia as a case study. The study area, Southeast Australia, is about 37% of the land area but holds about 81% of Australia’s population. It includes Tasmania Victoria, New South Wales with the capital Sydney, and southern Queensland state.
Part of the conclusion: “Because global warming is not uniform across the Earth’s surface, the revised definitions of climate will vary by region.“ We need region-by-regions studies. When we do that, changes to the seasons and to extreme weather events become more apparent. We can quantify them, where global models cannot. That is one of my take-aways.
Another problem: the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines climate norms. But they do it averaging at over 30 consecutive years (to minimize temporary extremes in one year). Now that the climate is changing so fast, our “normal” is out-dated and may minimize risks. We need more local, shorter time-frames to know what is happening, in reality. As Speer, Hartigan and Leslie say in an earlier paper
“climate can no longer be regarded as stationary”.
The new paper on climate and the seasons is loaded with useful information. For example, they write:
“between 2000 and 2019, the major natural disaster events almost doubled, to 7,348, claiming 1.23 million lives and affecting 4.2 billion people (many on more than one occasion). The global economic cost also doubled, increasing to US$2.97 trillion.”
A major source for these numbers is:
“United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. The human cost of disasters: an overview of the last 20 years (2000–2019)”; 2020 [cited July 2024]. Available here.
CYCLES OF THE SOUTH
Most media, and the majority of humans, are in the Northern Hemisphere. The public has learned about the Polar Vortex which can bulge down into North America or Europe with Arctic cold. Their is an Antarctic Polar Vortex but it behaves differently. The southern Polar Vortex is a “stratospheric wind pattern that extends down to the troposphere and is caused by the temperature difference between the cold pole and the warm region of the lower latitudes.” (Speer et al).
The Antarctic Polar Vortex (APV) flows over the ocean, without mountains or land. It is more regular even with its changes during seasons. But this strong wind system has dropped south by about 5 degrees in latitude. That change has dragged other weather systems, including those carrying rainfall, into new times and places of appearance. The Antarctic Polar Vortex is tightening toward Antarctica as the planet warms. That changes weather for Australia, New Zealand, and Southern South America.
Then we have a phenomenon few people in the North understand. It is the “Southern Annular Mode” of SAM for short. I won’t pretend to explain what I do not fully understand. I hope to interview at least one expert who can teach us what SAM really is, and what goes on in the stratosphere over the southern half of the globe.
I considered changes in the Southern Annual Mode in the “natural cycles” category rather than human-induced climate. But a 2023 paper in Nature Communications by Jonathan King found signs that: “the SAM’s positive trend over the last several decades is a response to anthropogenic climate change.” It too is being changed by human greenhouse gases.
SEEKING THE NEW NORMAL
We began with facts showing significant disasters have doubled in the last 20 years. What if these disasters double again in the next twenty years? That would be about 15,000 severe disasters every year, forty a day on average. Can any economy, or civilization, survive that? Do we know if this upward curve of more and more disasters is going to continue to increase?
CHECK OUT THIS ARTICLE IN THE CONVERSATION
‘Unprecedented’ climate extremes are everywhere. Our baselines for what’s normal will need to change”
Published: November 27, 2024 by Speer and Leslie
OVER AND OUT
A huge thanks to everyone helping to get this program out free for all. Radio Ecoshock depends totally on the generosity of listeners. You fund it.
Thank you for listening and caring. Onward to 2025!
The radio program ends with “In the Year 2525” Venice Beat featuring Tess Timony (2005).