California climate scientist and Weather West blogger Daniel Swain covers the latest U.S. purge of weather and climate science. But first, a new public health study about your body. How much heat before lasting damage kicks in? From the T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard Dr. Robert Meade on how heat kills.

Welcome to Radio Ecoshock. I’m your guide, Alex Smith.

Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (57 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

 

In these days, disruption of human affairs competes with disruption of nature. Super heat is here, but not evenly distributed. In mid-April, Summer arrived in Eastern Europe, while Spain was chilly. The U.S. Southwest baked in 100 degrees temps, 38 C. while snow fell from Ontario Canada to Albany New York to Maine.

Australia has experienced its hottest 12-month period on record, ending with its hottest March on record, with last month seeing temperatures 2.41C above average, the Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed.

Forty one degrees C – about 106 Fahrenheit in the shade on the Southern Coast of Australia April 13th! That is a summer heat wave in Fall in Australia. All the Pacific islands of Oceana are suffering through heat, and it doesn’t cool down enough at night. Southern China is too hot. Northern India is roasting. We will here more about that soon with Robert Meade, who was just there.

What we see across multiple continents: not a consistent warming of the world, but strange alternating waves of extreme unseasonal heat in one place, and colder than usual in another. The total is still warmer than ever, but not evenly distributed. This confuses humans.

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WHEN HOT IS TOO HOT

ROBERT MEADE

Hurricanes and wildfires get the headlines, but the real killer of climate change is barely reported. Extreme heat is killing millions of people around the world. Over 50,000 dead in one European heat wave, and thousands even in Northern countries like Russia and Canada. In the tropics, where it’s worst, we don’t have accurate figures. So it is shocking to find we are not even sure what the safe levels of heat and humidity are. Do you know your limit?

Dr. Robert Meade leads a team of scientists trying to find out. Meade is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Epidemiology, at Harvard’s well-known T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the Salata Institute. He is Lead Author of the March 31st paper in PNAS titled “Validating new limits for human thermoregulation”.

Listen to or download this 26 minute interview with Robert Meade in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

 

As we spoke in the middle of April, Northern India and Pakistan temperatures soared up to 49 degrees Celsius, 120 Fahrenheit – up to 8 degrees above normal. In the Northwestern Indian city of Ahmadabad, with seven and a half million people, the temperature is already well over 100 F. daily and forecast to break 40 degrees C soon, weeks ahead of normal for this time of year. Robert recently returned from Ahmadabad.

In 2010 a team of respected scientists set the lethal level of heat at 35 degrees C. wet bulb temperature. Since then, tests like those from Radio Ecoshock guest Daniel J. Vecellio suggest danger comes at lower wet bulb temperatures, meaning heat is unsafe sooner than governments have advised. Vecellio warns of “Greatly enhanced risk to humans” as humid heat stress strikes billions of people sooner than expected. In 2023, Vecellio et al. argued that the true limit for thermoregulatory compensability likely occurs at 26 to 31 °C Twb [wet bulb temperature] . That is in contrast to the theoretical 35 °C Twb threshold from Sherwood et al in 2010 – and yet 35 degrees C has stuck in the public mind as the safety line, which is dangerous.

 

NEW LIMITS INCREASE LETHAL HEAT STRESS BY OVER FOUR THOUSAND PERCENT!

The new study by Meade et al confirms earlier work by Vecellio and others. Meade and colleagues find:

“Incorporating these limits into climate modeling resulted in an ~4,100-fold greater elevation in projected uncompensable heat stress with 2 °C global warming compared to the 35 °C Twb threshold (~86,000 vs. ~21 annual person-hours).” Also: “…reduced autonomic function and adverse symptoms have been observed in older adults during prolonged but compensable exposure to Twb as low as 22 to 26 °C”

Part of this study is to determine whether testing students with increasing heat and humidity in a chamber is a true guide to what to expect in the real world, say outdoors. They find that it is.

Everyone should understand our body is not a quick heat mirror. The essential core temperature around key organs takes hours to lose control and break down. So it isn’t the quick dash to a local store that kills us. It’s about a combination of heat, humidity and how long we can tolerate exposure.

Also interesting in this study: our bodies manage to cope with heat for a while, and then rather suddenly the core temperature goes up. It is almost like a tipping point inside us.

We’re on the edge of hitting these “uncompensable” temperatures in a few places, such as the Middle East and India. See this paper: “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance” led by Colin Raymond, published May 8, 2020,

Various sources from bank studies to a the United Nations Gap Report admit we are heading to at least 3 degrees C of warming in this century, at our current pace. Hotter times also means the atmosphere can hold more water vapor – higher humidity. Are we going beyond human survival limits, meaning we should expect more mass deaths?

HEAT LIKE FIRE

In a way, heat danger is like fire risk. When it is very hot, fire risk increases, but it requires ignition to become fire, like lightening or arson for example. It can be very hot with high fire conditions but no fire. Similarly, for heat to become deadly, it requires the “spark“ of humidity to be lethal. We have heat waves. We have humidity waves like atmospheric rivers. When the two collide and combine, we have the killer heat/humidity wave.

We spoke about extreme heat with Greek scholar Dr. Mat Santamouris. He told us heat tolerance also depends on prior experience. For example, when it is 96 degrees in Athens, 35 C, there is no increase in visits to the Emergency Department. People expect that. But even 32C, 90 degrees in the United Kingdom, and more people go to Emergency due to heat related problems. Robert Meade agrees cultural adaptation is a factor in heat safety.

 

BEYOND DEATH

Media will focus on heat deaths. But damages from prolonged heat extend much further. Robert confirms increased violence and suicides during heat events is not a myth. In 2017, Dr. Camilo Mora from the University of Hawaii talked to us about his paper “Twenty-Seven Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You”. Among many studies he found: extreme heat can damage major organs. This may not kill right away, but shorten life later.

Extreme heat and humidity create a sudden wave of hospitalizations and deaths over a week or so, but then as Meade et al say, there are other longer lasting damages. Heat waves have a fat tail, so to speak. We are learning about Long COVID. I don’t think most doctors, public health planners or any of us are aware of “Long heat”.

COMMUNICATION FAILURES

This new study found slow changes in body core temperature also mean it can take hours to cool down after exposure to hot muggy weather. We pay attention to daytime highs, but tend to discount hotter nights. At least one expert guest suggested night conditions are key to letting the body cool down during a heat wave.

We see TV interviews with distressed relatives who lost someone to murder or a plane crash. But we never see an interview with relatives of those lost to heat. We don’t see the faces of people who are gone. Numbers get reported but it is never made real in a human sense. That is part of heat/humidity risk education as well. That is part of why heat is often called the “invisible killer”.

POPULATIONS AT RISK

– is this you? or someone you love?

According to Meade’s work and others, those most at risk from heat/humdity damage are:

Individuals unable to limit exposure (e.g., those without home air conditioning or experiencing homelessness).

People performing physically demanding activities in hot conditions (e.g., outdoor workers, athletes).

Individuals wearing insulated or non-permeable protective clothing in hot conditions (e.g., some workers, military personnel).

Older adults.

Persons with certain chronic health conditions.

In the interview, we discuss heat wave risks for older people – challenges for seniors and their lower wet bulb heat tolerance. Part of the problem is we don’t have a one-size-fits-all hard limit. Babies and the elderly may have different tolerances than people with diabetes or pregnant women. Plus, few people understand wet bulb temperature. They hear 32 degrees C or 35 Degrees C and think that is the safe line for heat. We need public health experts to create an easy chart we can check to see if it is safe to go out, and for how long? Maybe we need an app for that… but Robert says this chart may never be possible. There are so many variables. Experts can only offer rough guidance.

In 2023 we spoke with University of Sydney Professor Adrienne Gordon. She specializes in heat safety for pregnant women. She found each 1°C increase of heat brought a 5% increase in the risk of premature births in hot places – and a 16% increase during heat waves. These are among the populations that need far more study before we can set true safety limits. In the same Ecoshock show, the Olie Jay interview includes finding heat tolerance for pregnant women, babies, little kids, young adults, and seniors. Unlike this new paper from Meade et al, O. Jay’s study uses models rather than empirical measurements.

 

HOW THE HEAT CAN GRIND THE BODY DOWN

In our radio interview, Robert Meade says over 90% of India’s workforce is informal where official workplace guidance for health and safety do no apply. Some work at home for example. Others are day-workers. This makes regulating for safety difficult. He also tells us prolonged heat waves (days, weeks, or even months as in Phoenix) can still damage health even though below fatal levels. Just the strain of continually compensating for heat (sweat, circulation changes, more heart work) can lead to damaging conditions, including kidney breakdown as in Nicaraguan field workers in the heat.

CHECK OUT THESE ARTICLES FROM ROBERT MEADE ON HEAT IN INDIA

Check out this article:

How heat affects informal women workers—loss of income, skin infections, domestic violence

Emerging population data have linked elevated temperatures with declines in mental health and increased violence and self-harm.
Robert D Meade at al March 20, 2025

Excerpt:

“Members describe skin rashes and pelvic infections that can accompany sitting and weaving for hours in overheated single-room homes. Women report worsening symptoms throughout their reproductive cycle, including during menstruation, pregnancy and menopause. The women unsurprisingly cite finances as the biggest barrier to keeping their homes and bodies cool; most cannot afford air conditioners or fans, let alone pay for the electricity to run them.”

Harvard Project Tracks Heat’s Impact on India’s Most Vulnerable
Aug 1, 2024 (Meade et al)

Harvard Researchers Broaden Study on Extreme Heat’s Effects on Health and Livelihoods
Mar 11, 2025

PAY WOMEN TO LIVE SAFELY

Part of the solution: pay working women the small amount needed to take heat days off, rather than being forced to work (and risk health damage) or not feed families. See: “Insurance helped 46,000 women avoid deadly work during heat waves in India” Jun 12 2024 By Akshat Rathi.

“As soon as temperatures breached 43.6C in Ahmedabad, Makwana and thousands of other women were told that ICICI Lombard, an insurance company, would pay them a portion of their daily wages. The programme uses parametric insurance, which pays out when a particular metric is hit, such as a daily high temperature.”

THE NIGHTMARE OF MASS HEAT DEATHS

Does this again raise the question of Kim Stanley Robinson’s fictional opening heat disaster set in India (“The Ministry for the Future”). I interviewed Robinson last year. India made big strides to electrify the country in the last two decades, but other reports find as many as 1 in 5 rural dwellers do not have access to reliable electricity. Could mass heat deaths still happen there? (given they happened in Europe, Russia, and North America already…)

Or could the government know and react in time to save mass lives? What is India’s plan to avoid mass heat casualties?

Climate Sci-Fi Gets Too Real
Posted on March 27, 2024, my interview with Kim Stanley Robinson about his books and climate futures.

NOT JUST THE TROPICS: NO ONE IS SAFE FROM EXTREME HEAT

It’s not just the global south. In fact, ill-prepared people in the North, especially those who have never experienced extreme heat and humidity, may die in great numbers. During the 2021 heat dome, over 600 people died of heat in a few days in British Columbia – in Canada, where few people ever needed air conditioning before. The first cut is the deepest. Now more people are getting AC, and local governments are better prepared with public warnings and designated cooling centers. We may lose less the next time, but we become more complacent depending on machines and an electric grid that also withstands heat and demand. If the machines stop, masses of people could die, and not just in the global south.

Consider heat deaths in the Russian heat wave of 2010 (tens of thousands) and in Europe in 2003 (up to 70,000 deaths). Neither was in the tropics, but both were introductory heat waves on an ill-prepared population. I just think it’s a mischaracterization to talk about increasing heat deaths around the tropics (only).

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DUMPING SCIENCE IN USA

DANIEL SWAIN

“Dismantling of NOAA, NASA, & climate research accelerates”. That was a livestream science update from climatologist Daniel Swain, on April 14, 2025. I bring you 27 minutes of key selections from the two hour livestream.

Listen to or download this 29 minute report from Daniel Swain in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

 

Daniel Swain is a California-based communicator, often covering big storms, fires, and weather in the West. I was glued to his live reporting as wildfires burned into Los Angeles earlier this year. While mainstream media was fuzzy and hours late, Daniel swiveled through local cam shots of the fires, reports from the volunteer-sourced wildfire tracking app in Northern California, “Watch Duty”. Then he tossed in official wind maps and weather forecasts. It was amazing real-time coverage, and more amazing because Daniel was quick sick at the time. He’s just a fantastic mind operating with a wide range of sources. Find Daniel Swain at Weather West and most social media – plus YouTube.

Swain is still cool but disturbed in his Livestream last week, as he chronicles the dismantling of his world. You can watch the full 2 hour YouTube Livestream here.

 

 

NOTES FROM THE FRONT LINES WITH DANIEL SWAIN

Daniel begins with weather cuts in NOAA. Impacts are not yet seen as a few people try to keep things running. Cracks will appear. A lawsuit and Supreme court decision to reinstate some people fired from NOAA in Feb. but subsequent decision allowed them to be fired. They were rehired to Administrative Leave, and then fired again, some retroactively.

The National Weather Service is understaffed, and nobody wants to go on record on anything. Extreme culture of fear.  Recent anecdote, like no social media updates in CA. People depend on those services during disasters. This harms public communications. Weather service in Sacramento are so short of staff, they can’t do forecasting and offer updates to the public via social media.

Weather office for San Francisco area has shrunk. In Central US no longer have ability to launch weather balloons needed for local storm or tornado warnings.  Skeleton staffs, especially smaller offices in rural offices. This will degrade weather forecasts. The effects may not be seen until the next tornado or hurricane.

Weather service in Paducah Kentucky finds purchase orders over $1,000 cannot be paid without higher authorization. Toilets backed up and they can’t hire a plumber. All internal maintenance people fired. Region was hit by tornado and floods, had to use a porta-potty in parking lot, during a tornado outbreak.

Nobody wants to speak. Even though Daniel is not a journalist, and he has lots of colleagues and scientist friends, it is hard to find out what is going on, in real time.

Some labs have hazardous materials, but no one left qualified to handle them, some are needed daily. They are accumulating, until the labs have to shut down because no one is taking away hazardous materials in the legally mandated way for disposal.

Last Tuesday US Global Research Program which assembles national climate assessment (required by Congress) – has 20 people let go who prepared the report. Trump’s people have announced the normal climate update for the United States will no longer be produced.

Also last week, the Dept of Commerce ended a cooperative project with Princeton, the Dynamic Fluid Dynamics Lab, that did climate modeling famous the world over. Terminated?

Friday news last week, a document from the White House… the level of draconian existential cuts to weather and climate science in the United States. Sounds like a “pass-back document” which is a bit like a budget.

Many large cuts have been made through Musk’s DOGE, with no input from Congress, which is supposed to be the budget authority.

Secondly, journalists with that leaked document, they request that Agency Heads prepare for immediate action long before the 2026 budget is prepared by Congress. They should provide a plan for implementation by April 24th, only days away. Congress will not be meeting in that time. DOGE is going for almost immediate drastic action, without Congress.

The proposal would close entirely research at NOAA – into weather, climate, fires, disasters, etc. That operation also handed out NOAA grants for research all over the country. Most go to university sciences to cover research. A lot of climate, weather, fire research. Completely eliminated and then spread the remains elsewhere in NOAA. It ends 100% all research handled by NOAA.

The document claims to retain weather research but in fact leaves little of that. Decapitation strike against climate research in NOAA.

NASA may get 50% cuts, including scorched Earth policy cuts for climate research.

In addition, most of the cooperative research centers funded by NOAA and NASA would be cut, like NASA Goddard for example. It cuts all funding for climate, weather research in the United States.

It ends NOAA ability to get a satellite from NASA. (Good for Musk and SpaceX?) No future geostationary updates, including removing instruments already paid for in satellites being readied for launch, that sound like climate, like lightening detection.

Daniel says without a huge shift in public opinion, this is going to happen. It would spell the end of publicly funded climate research in the United States. Other agencies will follow suit, like the National Science Foundation. According to the pass-back document,  the reason for getting rid of climate research is: the desire to be seen as “eliminating the federal government’s support of global ideologies”.

Daniel advises contacting federal representatives. We are in this critical moment. We know this isn’t the only thing that matters now, but this matters. He wants to get the word out, so agreed to a re-broadcast by Radio Ecoshock.

This is not about efficiency or saving government money, but for ideological reasons, he says. The net result is going to be massive economic harm. As things break, it will cost a LOT of money to try and get these people and services back.

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ATTACKS ON SCIENCE CONTINUE

The barrage of attacks continues. The Trump team, led by Elon Musk’s DOGE, have finally reached another holy of holies. They plan to kill hundreds of grants already awarded or promised by The National Science Foundation. American economic and military might was built on science.

When U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick announced an almost $4 million cut from NOAA funding to Princeton University, his gang explained why. Such climate science he said, quote:

“exaggerated and implausible climate threats, contributing to a phenomenon known as ‘climate anxiety,’ which has increased significantly among America’s youth. Its focus on alarming climate scenarios fosters fear rather than rational, balanced discussion.”

– from a press release April 8 2025 from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

We just learned from some of those troublesome scientists that 31 out of 34 global regions will hit 2°C by 2040, with 26 regions reaching 3°C by 2060. So the heat is coming, whether you are anxious or not.

The kids should be anxious. We all should be anxious. Long-standing weather systems that fed and protected us are being disrupted, now knowingly, to keep profits for the few. There is money to be made wrecking the Earth – Naomi Klein’s insight which she called “Disaster Capitalism”.

On Radio Ecoshock scientists talk directly to you. Now many of them are afraid to speak. It is a struggle to keep this weekly program going. We are all in this struggle. Surrender is not an option.  Support this work if you can!

I’m Alex Smith. Thank you for listening, and caring about this world, no matter what.